Real Zero not Net Zero: “The only solution is to stop burning fossil fuels”
Real Zero Statement from the recently launched Lethal Humidity Global Council.
On 21 September 2024, at the UN Headquarters in New York, a new organisation was launched called the Lethal Humidity Global Council. An open letter from the organisation, warning about the dangers of rising humidity and heat to humanity, has been signed by more than 125 scientists.
The letter states,
There is scientific consensus that rising humidity and heat pose a serious and growing threat to humanity. At temperatures as low as 30°C, under conditions of high humidity, the human body struggles to cool down by sweating. Death can result.
Australia’s Minderoo Foundation is providing US$4 million for 10 new projects, including a global early warning system for deadly humid heatwaves. In the press release, the Minderoo Foundation explains that,
The LHGC consists of climate scientists, economists, public health experts and policymakers from leading research institutions, including Climate Analytics, Tsinghua, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, Harvard, Cambridge and Oxford universities, and the Indian Institute of Technology.
To mark the launch, the Lethal Humidity Global Council has published Real Zero Statement. The statement is posted in full below.
As Corporate Accountability, the Global Forest Coalition, and Friends of the Earth International pointed out in a 2021 report, Net Zero is a “Big Con”.
The Real Zero Statement is opposed to carbon offsets: “Net Zero ignores the clear scientific evidence that offsets are ineffectual and hindering the energy transition.”
It notes that, “Offsets based on natural carbon sinks do not take into account that these sinks are already weakening due to climate change — and are, at best, simply temporary.”
The statement has been signed by more than 60 scientists, including:
Professor Michael Mann
Presidential Distinguished Professor, Director of Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, University of Pennsylvania
Professor Johan Rockstrom
Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam
Dr Bill Hare
UN High Level Expert Group, Founder and CEO, Climate Analytics
Professor Katrin Meissner
Director, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australia
“We must phase out fossil fuels and stop pretending that offsets and carbon capture are going to get us there,” Katrin Meissner said at the launch in New York.
Andrew Forrest and Fortescue
The funding of the LHGC comes from Andrew and Nicola Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation. Andrew Forrest made his billions through the mining company Fortescue in Australia. The company is one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore.
Fortescue’s Solomon Mine is on the land of the Indigenous Yindjibarndi people. During a court hearing in August 2023, Yindjibarndi elder Stanley Warrie said Fortescue had “stolen” and “destroyed” Yindjibarndi land.
Since 2013, when mining started at Solomon, the mine has generated US$30 billion in revenue, but Fortescue has still not paid anything to the Yindjibarndi people.
“Stop burning fossil fuels”
Fortescue’s website describes Andrew Forrest as “a global business and philanthropic leader dedicated to ending the use of fossil fuels”.
In Minderoo’s press release Forrest says, “We must achieve Real Zero fossil fuel emissions as soon as possible.”
“Net Zero has become a meaningless mantra that just buys companies and governments time while they continue to burn fossil fuels, as long as they promise to use offsets or carbon capture and storage (CCS). But there is no evidence that offsets or CCS can scale to take up even a fraction of our emissions.
“The only solution is to stop burning fossil fuels.”
Here is the Real Zero Statement. The full list of signatories s available here.
Real Zero Statement
Real Zero means eliminating fossil fuels entirely. Real Zero is the only path that can reliably limit warming within the Paris Agreement’s guardrails.
Real Zero stands in contrast to Net Zero.
Net Zero has moved away from its original definition of substantially reducing fossil fuel use, to mean continuing to burn fossil fuels but claiming to “offset” the emissions.
Net Zero ignores the clear scientific evidence that offsets are ineffectual and hindering the energy transition.1 It also assumes that the world can capture carbon from fossil fuels at scale and permanently store it underground, contrary to evidence.2
In addition, offsets based on natural carbon sinks do not take into account that these sinks are already weakening due to climate change – and are, at best, simply temporary.
Real Zero is far harder than Net Zero. But it is the only path that can prevent further escalation of climate impacts.
Based on current emissions and the global carbon budget, humanity would have to stop burning fossil fuels by 2030 to have a 50:50 chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and by 2040 for a 50:50 chance of staying well below 2°C.3
We therefore call on businesses and governments to adopt Real Zero targets immediately – and to publish transparent plans on how they will eliminate fossil fuels, well before 2040.
Friedlingstein et al (2023) https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/5301/2023/
You can’t simply wind down fossil fuel usage without providing a substitute energy source AND/OR winding down population AND/OR consumption (drastically). This large population was ENABLED by fossil fuels (and artificial fertilizers, i.e. “green revolution”) thus the two are inseparably intertwined. Everyone MUST (in global North) reduce their energy consumption by 97% to reduce to world-average per-capita energy consumption which also means eliminating beef consumption entirely. That means YOU; that means NOW. Attempts at penalizing oil companies are bogus; it is a demand-side problem involving individual responsibility. You can’t sit there and wonder why governments can’t seem to do anything about climate issues at the COP meetings - it is collective individual actions that are at the heart of the issue. Stop flying, NOW!