On 19 November 2025, during the second week of COP30, several of the world’s leading experts on planetary science, forests, and oceans published a statement on the state of the negotiations. “We are already facing danger,” they wrote. “COP30 has a choice — to protect people and life or the fossil fuel industry.”
The statement was signed by Carlos Nobre of the Science Panel of the Amazon,
Fatima Denton of United Nations University, Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Marina Hirota of the Instituto Serrapilheira, Paulo Artaxo of the Universidade de São Paulo, Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, and Thelma Krug of the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais and who is Chair of the COP30 Science Council.
The statement stresses the urgency of massively reducing emissions from burning fossil fuels. The scientists point out that,
This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly. Finance from rich countries to developing countries is imperative.
We also need to protect the world’s forests. But as the scientists note, “forests are vulnerable to climate change causing more frequent and intense droughts, fires, heatwaves and land use conversion”. There is increasing evidence that forests are becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sinks.
And the scientists make absolutely clear that we cannot trade off forest protection against emissions from fossil fuels:
Forest protection cannot be used as offsets. Standing forests cannot be an excuse to keep burning fossil fuels.
Here is the statement in full — it is also available in Portuguese.
Scientists statement on state of COP30 Negotiations, November 19, 2025
We are at a planetary crossroad. We are already facing danger. Suffering for billions of people and rapidly approaching tipping points in the Amazon and the Tropical Coral Reef systems and many others. COP30 has a choice – to protect people and life or the fossil fuel industry.
As they stand, both proposals for the roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and to end deforestation are a provocation. Delegates seem not to understand what a roadmap is. A roadmap is not a workshop or a ministerial meeting. A roadmap is a real workplan that needs to show us the way from where we are to where we need to be, and how to get there.
We need to be as close as possible to absolute zero fossil fuel emissions by 2040, the latest by 2045. This means globally no new fossil fuel investments, removing all subsidies from fossil fuels and a global plan on how to phase in renewable and low-carbon energy sources in a just way, and phase out fossil fuels quickly. Finance from rich countries to developing countries is imperative.
At COP30 in Belém, it is no longer enough to restate that finance from developed to developing countries is imperative – it must be predictable, grant-based and consistent with a just transition and equity. The credibility of the Paris Agreement depends on it. Without scaling and reforming climate finance, developing countries cannot plan, cannot invest and cannot deliver the transitions needed for a shared survival.
The only reason we can have an orderly phase out of fossil fuels is because we assume forests will continue to be a major carbon sink. Unfortunately we have increasing evidence that forests are turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. This happens because forests are vulnerable to climate change causing more frequent and intense droughts, fires, heatwaves and land use conversion. The main cause of climate change is burning fossil fuels, thus without a fossil phase out, forests might not have the ability to survive and thrive. This is why it’s equally urgent to have a roadmap to concurrently phase out fossil fuels and end deforestation.
Most intact tropical forests are in developing countries. The Roadmap on ending deforestation must include financial support, capacity building and robust monitoring. Forest protection cannot be used as offsets. Standing forests cannot be an excuse to keep burning fossil fuels.
The global curve of GHG emissions needs to bend next year, 2026, not sometime in the future. We need to start, now, to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuels, by at least 5% per year. This must happen in order to have a chance to avoid unmanageable and extremely costly climate impacts affecting all people in the world.
The global carbon budget, calculated by science, forms the backbone to guide the mitigation agenda and pace of emission reductions. The RCB (remaining carbon budget) is now essentially consumed, down to 130 billion tons of CO₂, equivalent to 3-4 years of global emissions at current rate. This scientific budget provides the basis for all serious climate policy. It is our accounting tool away from danger. Removing the carbon budget from the text, means removing reality from the COP.
SIGNED
Carlos Nobre – Science Panel of the Amazon
Fatima Denton – United Nations University
Johan Rockström – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Marina Hirota – Instituto Serrapilheira
Paulo Artaxo – Universidade de São Paulo
Piers Forster – University of Leeds
Thelma Krug – Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais