The Tropical Forest Forever Facility has raised just over US$2 billion. Almost entirely from Brazil and Indonesia

TFFF is “beleaguered by complications”.

PHOTO Credit: TFFF.

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) was officially launched on 6 November 2025 at the Belém Climate Summit. The TFFF has been endorsed by 53 countries including 19 potential investors. In a press release about the launch, TFFF states that over US$5.5 billion was “announced” for the Tropical Forest Forever Facility.

The TFFF is careful not to say that this money has been committed.

In fact, US$3 billion or about 55% is from Norway. That money is to paid over a period of 10 years and it comes with a series of conditions that have to be met before Norway will disburse any funds:

• The TFFF must raise at least US$10 billion by the end of 2026;

• Norway’s contribution must not exceed more than 20% of the total; and

• The funding model must be sustainable and “maintain an acceptable level of risk”.

In other words, Norway has not yet committed anything.

Funds committed (and not yet committed)

Brazil and Indonesia have committed US$1 billion each. Portugal has committed US$1 million. The Netherlands has committed US$5 million for the secretariat. Germany “fully endorsed” the TFFF but hasn’t said how much it will commit, although it has said it will be a “substantial amount”.

On 10 November 2025, Reuters reported Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad as saying that he expects Germany to announce its contribution to TFFF by the end of the year.

On 11 November 2025, 13 organisations sent an open letter to German prime minister Friedrich Merz requesting him to announce a US$2.5 billion investment in the TFFF during COP30.

The letter states:

We believe it is politically crucial that the amount that you announced is finalised during the climate conference in Belém. This will allow us to maintain the momentum of the TFFF, guarantee Germany’s influence in its further development through a seat on the board, ensure that the Norwegian funds do not lapse, and mobilise further funds from other countries.

Meanwhile, according to the TFFF press release, “France has indicated that, under specific conditions, they would consider committing up to 500 million Euros until 2030”. Which doesn’t really sound like a firm commitment.

The UK announced the day before the launch that it will not contribute to the TFFF, but it may do so in the future. “The Brazilians are fuming,” The Guardian reported a source as saying.

China also announced that it will not contribute financially but has expressed political support for the TFFF. Folha de S.Paulo reported that China argued that developed countries should be the main financiers of global environmental preservation mechanisms. During negotiations, representatives of China referred to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.

Bloomberg reported someone familiar with the TFFF as saying that Brazil did not expect any more countries to commit to funding TFFF during COP30 and talks with India have stalled. Bloomberg reported that the Netherlands and Canada may contribute some time next year.

No multilateral development banks have committed money so far. The European Investment Bank is in discussions with the European Commission about supporting TFFF.

The Minderoo Foundation, which is backed by Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest, invested US$10 million.

So the only money actually committed to the TFFF is US$1 billion each from Brazil and Indonesia, US$10 million from the Minderoo Foundation, and US$1 million from Portugal.

Norway, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, China, and the UK may contribute at some point in the future, but have not yet done so.

A risky business

Norway’s condition that the funding model must “maintain an acceptable level of risk” is particularly interesting.

For the past three months, Max Alexander Matthey, a German PhD economics student, has been researching the risks involved in the TFFF’s proposed financial structure.

The TFFF’s financial arm is the Tropical Forest Investment Fund. The way the TFIF intends to make money is by using the fact that wealthy countries can borrow money at an interest rate of somewhere around 5%. The money raised is to be invested internationally — largely by buying emerging market bonds which yield about 8%.

The TFFF hopes to raise US$25 billion from countries and philanthropic organisations. A further US$100 billion is hoped to be raised from institutional and private investors. These investors will receive the first take on any money raised from the 3% spread — and their investment is guaranteed by the countries and philanthropic organisation that invested in the fund.

Any money left over once the institutional and private investors have taken their (guaranteed) profits and fees, and the countries and philanthropies have taken their returns, will go to tropical forest countries. Here’s a diagram of the flow of money — notice how many returns are taken before any money reaches tropical forest countries:

Tropical forest countries receive funding as long as the rate of deforestation in those countries is less than 0.5% and has decreased from 2023 to 2024. Tropical forest countries stand to receive payments at a maximum of US$4 per hectare of standing forest per year.

As Matthey and his supervisor Professor Aidan Hollis at the University of Calgary pointed out in August 2025, “The interest rate spread interpreted by the TFFF’s architects as market inefficiency is in fact compensation for real risk — not easy profits.”

In its Biodiversity Finance Factbook, issued on the same day that the TFFF was launched, BloombergNEF writes that, “BNEF expects the TFFF to garner attention, but underdeliver in Belém.” BNEF’s Factbook states that,

Its ability to act as a money faucet is in doubt: The potential 3% spread is foremost a risk premium, which publicly-released studies have failed to credibly address. Poor performance of emerging market assets, which face a diverse host of economic and political risks, could not only nullify forest payments, but also see development finance absorb private investor losses.

BNEF describes the TFFF as “beleaguered by complications”.

Just before the Belém Climate Summit, Fernando Haddad, Brazil’s finance minister, told Bloomberg that he believed the TFFF could raise US$10 billion by next year.

The reality is that pledges are likely to fall well short of this figure, which is already less than half of the original target of US$25 billion.