After two weeks of negotiations, Indigenous protests, a flood, and a fire, COP30 produced only an 8-page “Global Mutirão”. It fails to mention fossil fuels. It does mention the United Arab Emirates Consensus, which came out of COP28 in Dubai and which calls on Parties to contribute to “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. So three decades of UN climate meetings have resulted in just one mention of fossil fuels.
In an interview with France24 Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, describes COP30 as a failure:
“If you look at it scientifically, the conclusion must be nothing less than a failure, because we know that now 10 years after we signed the Paris Agreement, we’re still increasing emissions, we’re still seeing an acceleration of temperature rise, and we’re seeing suffering among hundreds of millions of people across the world already today.”
About 50,000 people travelled to Belém for the meeting. Including 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists. That’s more than every country delegation except Brazil.
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On 22 November 2025, the day COP30 finished, the UNFCCC sent an email to all participants. The subject line read, “Information on GHG Emissions Offset Opportunity”.
Here it is:
From: Cop-operations-info Sent: Saturday, November 22, 2025 To: cop-operations-info Subject: [Cop-operations-info] Information on GHG Emissions Offset Opportunity
Dear Participants,
Please see below information on GHG Emissions Offset Opportunity.
UNFCCC
---------------------------
COP30, in partnership with Caixa Econômica Federal, offers participants the opportunity to offset the greenhouse gas emissions generated by their participation in the event. The initiative is in line with Brazil’s commitment to climate action and increases individual engagement.
Offsetting can be done either via the link or using the QR Code below. By accessing the offsetting portal, each participant can estimate their carbon footprint in a simple and straightforward way, strengthening the culture of climate responsibility among visitors and delegations.
As part of this partnership, Caixa also offsets all emissions from the official COP30 operations, expanding the positive impact of the event.
Both actions are carried out through the purchase of carbon credits from the CAIXA Programme of Activities (PoA), certified by the UNFCCC, ensuring transparency and environmental integrity. In this way, COP30 promotes a participatory experience that increases climate awareness, encourages responsible choices, and strengthens the country’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality for the event.
The offset can be made until November 28 via the link below or the QR Code. https://cop30.caixa.gov.br
Open it on your mobile phone for better viewing.
The government of Brazil claims that COP30 was “carbon neutral” because it cancelled 130,000 carbon credits:
In a statement, Valter Correia, the Brazilian government’s special secretary for COP30, said,
“The compensation of more than 130 thousand tonnes of CO₂, with United Nations international certification, demonstrates that Brazil is delivering a conference that meets the urgency of the climate crisis and is aligned with global best practices. It is the COP of the Amazon, of Brazil, and of concrete action.”
Caixa Econômica Federal is a state-owned Brazilian financial services company. It is the fourth largest bank in Brazil. Caixa was the financial intermediary for a series of World Bank emission reduction purchase agreements from the Itaoca, Santa Rosa, São Gonçalo, and Barra Mansa landfills in Rio de Janeiro State, and Candeias, Petrolina, and Caruaru landfills in Pernambuxo State.
A 2018 World Bank report rated the overall borrower performance as “unsatisfactory”. A 2024 Bank report rated the outcome of the project as “moderately satisfactory”.
The World Bank gave a total of US$28 million for the project, which aimed to “improve the treatment and final disposal of solid waste in Brazilian municipalities, including through increasing private sector participation in solid waste services by leveraging carbon markets”.
The carbon credits were generated by capturing landfill gas and flaring it, using it for electricity generation, or delivering it to consumers.
I visited the website linked in the UNFCCC email and calculated how much it would cost to “offset” a flight from Jakarta to Belém. Indonesia sent the fourth largest delegation to COP30, 566 people — with a mission to sell carbon credits.
For 224.52 Rp (about US$42.66) each member of the Indonesian delegation could “offset” the 2.8 tonnes of CO₂e emitted from flying to Belém. That’s a little more than US$15 for each carbon credit.
I have a few suggestions for reducing the emissions from the next COP. First, kick out the fossil fuel and industrial food and farming lobbyists. Then kick out the carbon traders. Put a limit on the number of delegates each country can send. And focus the discussions on putting a stop to fossil fuels.
Cash from trash
The carbon credits that the UNFCCC is promoting are from the same type of Clean Development Mechanism project as the Bisasar Road rubbish dump carbon offsetting project in Durban, South Africa. It was created in 1980 during the apartheid regime in an “Indian” community. The area is now a cancer hotspot. Community members have long campaigned for the dump to be closed.
In 2002, the World Bank got involved with a US$14.4 million project to extend the life of the dump and to trade carbon credits generated by using the methane from the rotting waste. After an international outcry, the World Bank pulled out of its promise to market carbon credits from the Bisasar Road waste dump.
While the World Bank claims that carbon finance is helping “turn trash into treasure”, people living near to landfill sites in Brazil complain about the stink from the rotting rubbish. Using the methane to generate electricity makes no difference to the smell. House prices are reduced in the area around the landfills.
Brazil has a waste problem, as does most of the world. Brazil is also the world’s fifth largest emitter of methane. Three-quarters of that comes from the beef and dairy cattle industry. Brazil’s methane emissions increased by 6% between 2020 and 2023.
Selling carbon credits from landfill dumps does not solve either the waste or the methane problem. And it makes the climate crisis worse by propping up the delusion that greenhouse gas emissions from flying can be “offset”.
In an earlier draft of this post, I compared the COP30 emissions calculator with a couple of others, and got very different results. I ended up deleting that paragraph, mainly because I had no way of knowing which emissions calculator was correct.
I just read this New Scientist article, and it looks like they were probably all underestimating the real impact of flying on the climate:
Thank you for this apt summary of the depressing outcome of COP30. I work with the No REDD in Africa Network, A network of civil society organisations, activists and communities who are exposing and building resistance to the spread of false solutions especially REDD on the continent. www.no-redd.africa. As one who is extensively knowledgeable on carbon offsets and REDD issues, we will like to have you speak on a webinar, interview or feature on our Podcast series where we talk about the dangers and misconceptions of REDD. I look forward to hearing from you. OduduAbasi -oduduabasi@homef.org
In an earlier draft of this post, I compared the COP30 emissions calculator with a couple of others, and got very different results. I ended up deleting that paragraph, mainly because I had no way of knowing which emissions calculator was correct.
I just read this New Scientist article, and it looks like they were probably all underestimating the real impact of flying on the climate:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2502290-your-flight-emissions-are-way-higher-than-carbon-calculators-suggest/
Thank you for this apt summary of the depressing outcome of COP30. I work with the No REDD in Africa Network, A network of civil society organisations, activists and communities who are exposing and building resistance to the spread of false solutions especially REDD on the continent. www.no-redd.africa. As one who is extensively knowledgeable on carbon offsets and REDD issues, we will like to have you speak on a webinar, interview or feature on our Podcast series where we talk about the dangers and misconceptions of REDD. I look forward to hearing from you. OduduAbasi -oduduabasi@homef.org